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A scientific study to be published in a peer-reviewed journal suggests that Tadej Pogačar’s VO₂ max could reach nearly 96 ml/kg/min. This is a level rarely observed in humans. Based on an analysis of publicly available data and physiological models, this research proposes a new estimation method. However, it should be noted that these results still need to be confirmed by laboratory measurements.
By Guillaume Judas – Photos: depositphotos.com
Just how far can Tadej Pogačar’s engine go? The question has fueled debate for several seasons, as the Slovenian has consistently delivered impressive performances in the biggest races on the calendar. According to our colleagues at BikeRadar, a new scientific study—soon to be published in the International Journal of Sports Physiology and Performance—attempts to provide some insight by estimating the VO₂ max of the five-time Tour de France champion. The findings are spectacular: the UAE Team Emirates-XRG champion may have an aerobic capacity ranging from 94 to 98 ml/kg/min, with an estimated average of 96 ml/kg/min.
An estimate based on race performance
Unlike traditional laboratory measurements, the study’s authors (Sebastian Sitko, Kristian Berg, and Pedro Valenzuela) took a different approach. They used only publicly available data: climb profiles, lap times, the rider’s and bike’s reported weight, weather conditions, elevation, and power data available from several of his competitors.
Four iconic climbs from the 2024 and 2025 seasons served as the basis for the calculations: Plateau de Beille, Isola 2000, Peyragudes, and the Passo di Ganda. The goal was to assess the oxygen consumption required to achieve the observed performance levels, taking into account numerous physical and physiological parameters.
A Method Validated with Chris Froome
To verify the reliability of their model, the researchers applied it to Chris Froome using previously known data. By using only publicly available information regarding a climb from the 2015 Tour de France, they obtained an estimated quipeVO₂ max of 85.3 ml/kg/min, very close to a value measured in the laboratory that year (84.4 ml/kg/min) and reported by his team. According to the authors, this agreement reinforces the credibility of their approach and paves the way for estimating the physiological capabilities of top cyclists based on their competitive performances.
Remarkable figures… but to be interpreted with caution
While the results are impressive, the researchers emphasize that this is an estimate, not an official measurement. Several key parameters remain unknown, notably the exact power output generated by Pogačar during the climbs studied and his actual muscular efficiency—two variables that directly influence the calculation of VO₂ max.
The authors therefore acknowledge the limitations of their method, although they emphasize that their assumptions are based on realistic values observed among top professional cyclists.
VO₂ max isn’t everything
The study also points out that an exceptional VO₂ max is not enough to explain a champion’s performance. Tactical skills, effort management, resistance to fatigue, and mental strength remain decisive factors in competition.
In fact, Pogačar himself recently explained that his power output figures had not fundamentally improved in recent seasons, but that his reading of the race and his decision-making had become significantly more refined.
Data That Will Likely Remain Secret
Researchers now hope that the Slovenian rider or his team will one day agree to publish a lab test or complete power output data to compare their model with reality. They acknowledge, however, that this information currently constitutes a major strategic advantage and is unlikely to be made public.
Of course, this estimate is still subject to uncertainty. But even taking this margin of error into account, it gives a rough idea of the exceptional engine the Slovenian appears to possess. If these extraordinary performances are indeed the result solely of his physiological qualities and training, then Pogačar could quite simply be the greatest endurance sports champion humanity has ever known. A claim to be taken with a grain of salt, but one that illustrates the magnitude of what his performances inspire in observers and scientists alike today.
Sources: study to be published in the International Journal of Sports Physiology and Performance; BikeRadar article published on August 3, 2026.
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