Giro 2021: the start list and our favorites for the 104th Tour of Italy

The 104^th Giro d’Italia, which kicks off this Saturday in Turin, is once again expected to deliver plenty of surprises, right from the start with the long prologue (nearly 9 km) scheduled for the first day, an already difficult fourth stage in its finale, high mountains tackled on the sixth day, and over 30 km of dirt roads on the eleventh stage, which will be one of the race’s highlights. All this before a very demanding final week.

By Olivier Dulaurent – Photos: RCS, Ineos Grenadiers, Getty Images, Astana-Premier Tech, Team DSM, Team BikeExchange

On a course that once again breaks new ground, the race scenarios will remain more “unhinged” than those the Tour de France might offer. In the Giro, the “good move” can happen anywhere, while the forces present for the general classification can reveal new names, given the race’s rather early date in the calendar, meaning few stage races beforehand to establish trends.

In this game, the dress rehearsal held a few days ago at the Tour of the Alps indicates which riders will be in form for the start of the race… but gives no indication for the final week, which is always spectacular and demanding. Especially since the recent history of the event has seen some spectacular twists in the last 300 km of the race. Will 2021 break the rule?

For now, in the game of predictions, the 3bikes.fr editorial team has tried to identify the names likely to stand on the top step of the podium in Milan on May 30, after the decisive second individual time trial.

Egan Bernal*

After a 2019 season that saw him win Paris-Nice, the Tour de Suisse, and the Tour de France, 2020 did not live up to the Colombian champion’s expectations.

Back problems were the cause of these mixed performances, which even forced him to abandon the Tour. Egan Bernal used the off-season to recover, and while his form has returned, as evidenced by third place at Strade Bianche and second place on the queen stage of Mont Ventoux at the Tour de Provence, the rider says the pain is still present.

On this point, three weeks of racing are necessarily more demanding than much shorter events. Still, at his best, Egan Bernal has proven that he would be difficult to beat in the mountains, while being particularly versatile, whether in time trials or when it comes to fighting for position.

Simon Yates*

After his 2018 Giro, where he collapsed in the last two stages after clearly dominating his opponents for almost three weeks, the Briton returns to Italian soil. Since that memorable failure, he has won the 2019 Vuelta and thus seems to have found the key to managing a long-distance event like a Grand Tour.

Among the favorites, in recent outings, he appears to be in the best form, having been imperious on the very difficult Tour of the Alps, as soon as the gradient increased.

Jai Hindley**

Along with Tao Geoghegan Hart, he was one of the surprises of the last Giro, held last October. At his age (24), it’s easy to imagine that with six more months and a Grand Tour in his legs, he will continue to progress. On the Tour of the Alps, he was a little short when the battle was at its peak, but he certainly planned a peak in form to be in shape at just the right time, knowing that five weeks separate the end of the Tour of the Alps from the last mountain stage of the Giro d’Italia.

Aleksandr Vlasov

Probably the least known of the general classification contenders, the Russian from the Astana team could very well win. Building on a 2020 year that saw him rise to the level of the best on difficult terrain (third in Il Lombardia, winner of the Ventoux Dénivelé Challenge and the Giro dell’Emilia, second in the Angliru stage of the Vuelta a España), and already second in Paris-Nice last March, he proved to be the strongest physically on the Tour of the Alps in April when the terrain was difficult, behind Simon Yates.

Moreover, the 25-year-old rider continues to learn and progress with each outing. Finally, he has made the Giro d’Italia his main objective for 2021.

Joao Almeida

He, too, was a surprise at the 2020 Giro d’Italia, finishing in fourth place after wearing the pink jersey for 15 days. Surprised himself by the level he reached over three weeks, the Portuguese rider has made the 2021 Giro a real objective. We can bet that the experience gained last year will help him maintain a consistent level throughout the race, as he had a complicated final week.

Mikel Landa

Often placed, rarely a winner, Mikel Landa has too rarely been in the right place at the right time. When he was one of the strongest or the strongest, he had to stick to the role of domestique. And when he was a leader, the stars didn’t align for him. Either because he suddenly ran out of legs or simply because there was someone stronger than him. His consistency plays in his favor, as shown by his placings on the Tour: fourth in 2017 (riding for Christopher Froome), seventh in 2018, sixth in 2019, and fourth in 2020. The 2021 season only confirms these performances, notably with a third place at Tirreno Adriatico. In any case, 2021 could well be his year, as at 31 years old, he is in his prime years for success. With Pello Bilbao by his side, perhaps in the best form of his life – but who could then take the leadership –, he will be able to count on a valuable (and in-form) teammate in the high mountains.

Vincenzo Nibali*

36 years old and still at the start. It is unlikely that the Shark of Messina will play a leading role, as he clearly explained that in the 2020 Giro, it was “too fast for him.” Time is not on his side, and a nasty training crash in mid-April (wrist fracture) disrupted his preparation, but no one knows the event better than him.

The 2016 Giro was not going well either with 3 days to go when he overturned Steven Kruijswijk. Let’s also remember Milan San Remo 2018, won right under the noses of the sprinters and punchers, at a time when no one expected him. If he doesn’t lose too much time in the early stages, Nibali could improve as the race progresses, and his physical freshness could cause damage over three weeks. Moreover, he is very strong when the weather conditions are complicated, which is often the case in the Giro.

Romain Bardet***

He was already supposed to do the 2020 Giro, but the pandemic decided otherwise. The long-time AG2R rider, now with DSM, prepared specifically for the Giro “the Anglo-Saxon way.” That is, lots of training camps and few races. A priori, this suits the Brioude native, who knows how to prepare alone in his corner, even if he admitted that he was still too short on the Tour of the Alps and “there was still work to do.”

But like Jai Hindley, his DSM teammate, the coaches were able to plan his preparation to be 100% for the big mountain stages in Italy.

Other outsiders can also create a surprise. Among them, how can we not mention Remco Evenepoel, who would probably have been one of the big favorites if he hadn’t had that huge crash at Il Lombardia 2020. His level of form remains an enigma, but it’s hard to believe he can compete with riders who have races in their legs and had an unimpeded preparation.

Pavel Sivakov and Daniel Martinez could become substitute leaders if Egan Bernal falters at Ineos Grenadiers. Both are in form, the team is racing more offensively this year, and they could replicate the scenario of the 2020 edition where Tao Geoghegan Hart won the general classification after coming to the start to help his leader Geraint Thomas.

Hugh Carthy may finally achieve the great result that his career, so close to the best, deserves. At 26, he is becoming more and more consistent, and the 2020 Vuelta, where he finished third (winner at the summit of the Angliru), reassures about his capabilities over three weeks.

As for Daniel Martin, 34 years old, he has once again shown that he is never far from the front whenever the race is difficult. At the end of last season, he narrowly missed the podium at the Vuelta a España, and his recent outings indicate that he is currently at a high level. While victory in Milan seems complicated, a good honorary placing remains within his reach.

The start list

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